Terms of Reference (ToR):
Design of Gendered Displacement Drivers Assessment (GDDA) Framework
Nagaasho – Integrated Solutions for Preventing Displacement and Strengthening Rural Resilience in Somalia and Somaliland is a consortium of national and international organizations – CARE (lead agency), iRise Hub, Saferworld, the World Food Programme’s IGNITE Innovation Hub, WARDI Relief and Development Initiatives, and the Women’s Action for Advocacy and Progress Organization (WAAPO). Nagaasho’s objective is to address the root causes of displacement by building the climate, economic, and social resilience of rural communities in high-risk districts. The consortium works across the humanitarian–development–peace nexus, tackling three interlinked displacement push factors: climate shocks and low adaptive capacity, limited economic opportunities, and conflict combined with weak governance. Nagaasho’s approach is community-led, contextually adaptive, and grounded in the priorities of women, youth, and marginalized groups, ensuring that solutions are locally owned and sustainable. Currently under the Danish Somalia Strategic Framework, the consortium is implementing a four-year programme that integrates climate-smart agriculture, inclusive market systems, conflict prevention, and institutional strengthening to reduce displacement risks and promote long-term stability in Somalia and Somaliland.
CARE Somalia is seeking to procure the services of an external consultant to design, harmonize, and implement the Gendered Displacement Drivers Assessment (GDDA) Framework.
Somalia’s internal displacement crisis is driven by a complex interplay of interdependent push factors: increasingly severe climate shocks with low local resilience, limited economic opportunities and fragmented governance with weak capacities to prevent or manage conflicts over resources. These drivers have contributed to an estimated 3.9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) around a quarter of the population, up sharply from 1.1 million in 2017 (UNHCR).
Recent displacement monitoring underscores the scale and urgency of the crisis. Between February and March 2025, the IOM’s Emergency Trend Tracking (ETT) recorded 107,930 new arrivals across 9,003 settlements in twenty-five districts, with 82% settling in urban areas and 18% in rural locations, including 6,696 IDP sites. The largest influxes were recorded in Bay (28%), Gedo (19%), Middle Shabelle (17%), and Banadir (15%). Most movements (73%) occurred within the same region, while 27% originated from other regions or countries. The primary causes were drought (60%) and conflict (34%), followed by floods (4%) and evictions (2%).
Climate shocks intensified by low adaptive capacity are the leading driver of displacement. Five failed rainy seasons to 2022 devastated rural livelihoods, and 2023 floods displaced 190,000 people in Baardheere and 484,000 in Belet Weyne. With degraded ecosystems, weak water systems, and limited adaptation planning, ETT confirms climate-related drought is the top cause of new displacement in early 2025. Economic pressure deepens the crisis: over half of cropping households lack seeds (FAO), post-harvest cereal losses reach 20–30% (World Bank), only 16% use formal banking (9% for women), and inefficient value chains push rural families toward cities; women are disproportionately affected. Without livelihood diversification and better market access, climate-economic displacement will persist.
Conflict and weak governance also force large-scale displacement, 654,000 people in 2023 alone. In Laascanood, 195,000 people were displaced by conflict, reflecting the scale of insecurity, and competition over scarce resources especially water remains a flashpoint, with per-capita availability at only 411 m³, far below the UN’s 1,000 m³ scarcity threshold. Weak dispute-resolution mechanisms and the exclusion of women from decision-making limit the effectiveness of local governance. The latest ETT findings confirm that conflict remains the second-largest displacement trigger, accounting for over one-third of new movements in early 2025.
The interconnectivity of these drivers means that climate shocks intensify conflicts and undermine livelihoods, while resource-based disputes further weaken economic opportunities. Displacement push factors vary across communities, making community-driven planning essential to address context-specific risks and the need for targeted interventions for vulnerable groups.
NAGAASHO project is built around three interlinked outcomes: (1) enabling communities to anticipate and adapt to climate shocks through gender-responsive, climate-smart practices and sustainable natural resource management, (2) supporting women and youth to shape local food systems, establish climate-smart livelihoods, and strengthen market linkages and (3) promoting inclusive governance and peacebuilding to enhance social cohesion and prevent conflict. Targeting rural people, the project prioritizes pastoralists, agro-pastoralist. Through community-driven approaches, capacity building, and locally led planning, Nagaasho integrates climate adaptation, livelihood diversification, and conflict prevention as mutually reinforcing pathways to address the root causes of displacement.
The Gendered Displacement Drivers Assessment (GDDA) will integrate climate and conflict-sensitive participatory tools with explicit gender analysis to surface differentiated drivers and risks and generate CAP-ready, locally led entry points for action. This directly supports Nagaasho’s aim to strengthen adaptive capacities, expand climate-smart livelihoods, and promote inclusive, conflict-sensitive governance with a strong focus on women, youth, and marginalized groups linking climate adaptation, market access, and social cohesion as mutually reinforcing pathways to reduce displacement.
The purpose of this consultancy is to design, harmonize, and field-test a simplified, user-friendly, and action-oriented Gendered Displacement Drivers Assessment (GDDA) Framework and accompanying facilitator’s manual. The GDDA Framework will integrate CARE’s Gendered Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (GCVCA), Saferworld’s Gender-Sensitive Conflict Analysis (GSCA), and other relevant participatory displacement assessment tools into a unified methodology for use.
The GCVCA is a participatory framework for understanding how climate change affects communities differently by gender, age, and social factors, while identifying local adaptive capacities. It integrates climate science, socio-economic analysis, and community perspectives through tools like seasonal calendars, hazard mapping, historical timelines, and vulnerability ranking. By combining participatory rural appraisal with gender analysis, it reveals differentiated vulnerabilities, root causes, and priorities for locally led adaptation, ensuring interventions address the specific needs and capacities of all groups.
The GSCA examines the root causes, key actors, dynamics, and impacts of conflict, with a focus on how these affect women, men, and marginalized groups differently. Using participatory tools such as stakeholder mapping, conflict timelines, and power analysis, it identifies inequalities, exclusion, and barriers to participation, while highlighting opportunities for peacebuilding. This ensures interventions are inclusive, context-specific, and promote social cohesion, gender equality, and locally owned, sustainable peace. The GSCA moves beyond merely avoiding harm to fostering gender-transformative change, supporting meaningful participation for women, men, and marginalized groups.
CARE is a major international humanitarian agency delivering emergency relief and long-term international development projects. Founded in 1945, CARE is one of the largest and oldest humanitarian aid organizations focused on fighting global poverty.... Read More
