EXPRESSION OF INTEREST (EOI)

S. No: 1

TENDER NO.:  WVSOM/18/FY25

DESCRIPTION:  Annual Resilience Measurement (ARM) and EU Breach Evaluation for the SomReP

Introduction

About SomReP

Somali Resilience Programme (SomReP) is a consortium of seven international NGOs and one local NGO namely Action Against Hunger (AAH), the Adventist Development and Relief Agency International (ADRA), Cooperative Assistance for Relief Everywhere (CARE), Cooperazione Internazionale (COOPI), Danish Refugee Council (DRC), Oxfam, World Vision Somalia and Shaqodoon whose aim is to tackle the challenge of mitigating the effects of recurrent shocks and stressors and alleviating the chronic vulnerability that is common among pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, and peri-urban households across Somalia. The program was designed to address communities’ unique needs by building resilient livelihoods, a strategy founded on the lessons learned and best practices of the consortium members.

With support from DFAT, EU, SIDA, BMZ and SDC, SomReP has been implementing interventions with the aim of enhancing the resilience of vulnerable populations. To achieve this, SomReP programming supports resilience through:

1. Livelihoods & food security: HHs in targeted communities have improved access to productive livelihoods for enhanced food access and diversity;
2.  Social Safety Nets: HHs in target communities have their livelihoods and assets protected during shocks and stressors through the establishment and strengthening of social safety nets, including the use of crisis modifier mechanisms such as Savings Group Schemes;
3. Natural resource management: Eco–system health improved through promotion of equitable and sustainable natural resource management;
4. Local governance capacity building: Communities, civil society and local institutions are better equipped with resilience strategies and response capacities to cope with recurrent shocks and stressors; and

The rationale behind the theory of change and impact pathways is that implementation of such interventions would eventually result in positive changes in well-being indicators which implicitly is indicative of enhanced adaptive, absorptive and transformative capacity. The program targets 98,495 households and is implemented in the districts of; Afgooye, Badhan, Baidoa, Belet Xaawo, Bossaso, Burao, Ceel Afweyne, Luuq, Jowhar, El Barde, Dollow, Eyl, Hargeisa, Laas Caanood, Lughaya, Odweyne, Salahley, Bulo Burte, Waajid and Xudur.

At the beginning of all these projects, SomReP conducted baseline surveys to establish benchmark indicators. In addition, since 2016/17 SomReP has conducted annual resilience measurements to document impact of the SomReP programmes and assess the progress made annually on key outcomes and output indicators. This resilience measurement study will build on these studies to document the programme’s impact and assess the progress so far made on key outcomes and output indicators.  SomReP would also want to take advantage of this assessment to establish whether the hypotheses and assumptions set to underpin SomReP Theory of Change and causal linkages between inputs and activities and outcomes and impacts were plausible and valid. The results of the assessment will be particularly important for SomReP not only to understand the impact of the project, test the theory of change underpinning the strategies and interventions delivered, but will also inform future strategic programming and project development. The 2025 round will be the fifth consecutive annual assessment and will generate nationally comparable data across 10 active districts where SomReP is currently operating.

1. About EU BREACH and SDC Projects

The Boosting Resilience and Attaining Durable Solutions for Displacement-Affected Communities in Burao (BREACH) project, funded by the European Union, is a two-year intervention aimed at strengthening durable solutions for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and host communities in Somaliland. BREACH has invested in livelihoods, WASH, and health services, alongside governance and preparedness mechanisms. A baseline survey conducted in Burao revealed wide service and resilience gaps, particularly in healthcare, shelter, WASH, and livelihood access. The upcoming endline survey will evaluate the project’s achievements, alignment with community needs and national priorities, and overall contribution to durable solutions.

The SomReP–SDC project, Consolidating Resilience Gains in Somalia, funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), is being implemented from October 2024 to December 2025 in four districts: Afgoye, Baidoa, El Afweyn, and Eyl. The project reaches 14,889 households across 38 villages and responds to the cumulative effects of severe drought (2022–2023) and devastating floods that eroded livelihoods and displaced households. The intervention prioritizes adaptive risk management, shock response, sustainable livelihoods, and inclusive governance to consolidate resilience gains. Its endline will measure recovery progress, assess preparedness for future shocks, and generate evidence to guide continuation or scale-up of resilience programming in fragile, climate-vulnerable contexts. Together, ARM 2025, the BREACH endline, and the SDC endline represent a critical opportunity to assess project-level achievements, capture broader learning across donor portfolios, and inform policy and practice in resilience-building. The intended outcomes were: 

1. Improved capacity of households to implement effective disaster risk management and positive coping strategies to mitigate the immediate effect of exposure of shock. 
2. Improved capacity of individuals, households and communities to adhere to positive development trajectories; despite exposures to shocks and utilize strategies designed to allow adaptation to rapid and slow on-set hazards.
3. Enhanced food security and resilience through improved capacity to engage in strategies for sustainable livelihoods and economic growth.
4. Transparent and accountable governance structures at community, district and national levels to ensure an enabling policy and regulatory environment for sustainable livelihoods and economic growth. 
5. Local and international stakeholders use Monitoring, Evaluation, Accountability and Learning systems to measure resilience data and use it for evidence based programming and strategic investments in transformative capacities.

2.0 Purpose and scope of integrated Annual Resilient Measurement and EU BREACH Evaluation

1. Annual Resilience Measurement

The scope and focus of the ARM is to explore the outcomes and impact of the programme, in order to facilitate an understanding amongst the consortium programme staff and stakeholders of the extent to which the envisaged change has been realized. It will track progress against SomReP’s Theory of Change, identify resilience trajectories, and provide actionable evidence for adaptive management. 

ARM 2025 will generate nationally representative data on resilience capacities, food security, livelihoods, and coping mechanisms across 10 districts using household surveys, KIIs with local leaders and government, and FGDs with women, youth, and marginalized groups.

2.2.  ARM 2025 Objectives:

• Assess the relevance, and effectiveness of the program strategies and interventions in relation to the context and the programme strategic framework, documenting the lessons learnt and best practices to inform future adaptations of interventions typologies. 
• Establish the extent to which the consortium has achieved its purpose and delivered on intended outputs, and whether the intended outcomes were met in relation to resilience programming 
• Assess the impact of the programme with particular focus on establishing changes that have occurred as measured by resilience capacity indices (absorptive capacity index, adaptive capacity index and transformative capacity index ) and wellbeing indicators (provided for in SomReP master logical framework) for example food security and coping strategies indicators (i.e. HHS, FCS, rCSI), ownership of household and community productive assets (climate sensitive and non-climate sensitive assets), income and expenditures among others; and disaggregated to livelihood zones and other vulnerabilities. 
• Assess the effectiveness and efficiency of programme interventions in strengthening the response capacity of various shocks and stresses including COVID-19 effects, Desert Locust, Conflict, drought, Floods etc.
• Employ a quasi-experimental design to compare households and communities directly targeted by SomReP interventions with non-targeted or indirectly exposed groups, thereby strengthening attribution of observed changes to program interventions.
• Compare findings with the last four rounds of ARM surveys (2021–2024) to analyze longitudinal trends in resilience trajectories, highlight persistent gaps, and identify lessons on what has worked or not worked in different livelihood and displacement contexts.

1. EU BREACH Endline Evaluation

Since 2023, SomReP has been implementing resilience activities under the EU BREACH grant with the goal of contributing to the resilience of chronically vulnerable Somali people, households, communities and systems through enhanced food security, sustainable livelihoods, and strengthened disaster risk management capacities in affected areas in Somalia and Somaliland by 2025. At the beginning, a baseline assessment was conducted in 2023 to establish and document baseline values for key indicators of the projects so as to serve as a basis for measuring impact. A midterm evaluation was conducted in 2024 to assess the continued relevance of EU BREACH intervention and the progress made towards achieving its intended outcomes. 

The end line evaluation will therefore build on the Midterm evaluation to assess the projects performance in terms of its impact, effectiveness and sustainability as well as capture the project achievements, challenges and best practices to inform future strategic programming and project development. The evaluation will also review the recommendations provided in the midterm assessment and assess the extent to which they have been incorporated into the design of the resilience activities. Specifically, the endline will address the following objectives:

Objective 1: Evaluate to what extent the resilience interventions carried out under EU BREACH grant have delivered on the following

Effectiveness: The end line evaluation will seek to find out how far the project’s results and its specific objectives were attained by focusing on the following areas; 

• To what extent have the planned objectives in the log frame of the project been reached?
• Did the intended beneficiaries participate in the intervention?
• To what extent has the project activities contributed to the resilience of the chronically vulnerable people, households, communities and systems in the targeted pastoral, agro-pastoral, peri-urban, fisher folks and IDPs? 
• What were the major factors influencing the achievement of the objectives of the project?
• Were there opportunities for collaboration utilized in delivery of the interventions, which ones and how did they contribute to increased effectiveness?
• Were there any shortcomings that hindered the effectiveness delivery of the interventions?
• Were proper accountability and risk management framework put in place to minimize risks on the program implementation?

Efficiency: This criterion will look at the extent to which the interventions delivered results in an economic and timely manner compared to what was planned. The assessment of efficiency will therefore look at;

• How efficient was the delivery of the project not only in terms of expenditure but also in terms of implementation of activities?
• Was the project activity implementation considered to have been cost efficient while not compromising quality?
• Were there opportunities in the program implementation to reach more beneficiaries with the available budget without compromising on the quality?
• Were there any changes made to the initial program design that were influenced by the reality on the ground? What were the outcomes as a result of this?

Relevance: This criterion will look at the extent to which the program objectives and interventions responded to the key stakeholders (Government institutions, local authorities, beneficiaries, youth, women, persons living with disability) needs, policies and priorities. The criterion will focus on the following;

• How relevant were the activities implemented by the project in addressing the needs of the stakeholders?
• What is the perception of the project by the stakeholders and how has it impacted on their lives?
• To what extent has the project been able to adapt and provide appropriate response to the needs and priorities of the stakeholders.

Impact: This criterion will assess the degree to which the program's objectives and actions influenced change among its primary stakeholders, including government institutions, local authorities, beneficiaries, youth, women, and individuals with disabilities. The criterion will focus on the following;

• To what extent have the intended (and unintended) outcomes been achieved when comparing the baseline and endline data?
• Can the observed changes be directly attributed to the program, and have external factors that could have influenced these outcomes been accounted for?
• Were there any unforeseen positive or negative impacts resulting from the program?
  • What has been the contribution of the project to the country’s development agenda and the National Development Plan 9.
  • Has the project made an impact on terms of cross-cutting issues like gender equality, environment, good governance, conflict prevention etc?

Sustainability: The end line evaluation will seek to find out the extent to which the resilience gains made will likely continue after external funding ends over the medium and long term. The assessment will therefore look at the following;

• Project stakeholders ownership, how far they were consulted from the beginning and whether they agreed and will continue to remain in agreement after the end of the program
• Institutional capacities in existence that can sustain the resilience gains made over time
• Financial sustainability

Coherence: The criterion will look in the project compatibility with other interventions undertaken by Government or other donors within the areas of implementation. In line with this, the assessment will look at the following;

• Likeliness that results and impacts will mutually reinforce one another
• Likeness that results and impacts will duplicate or conflict with one another

Objective 2: Assess the impact of the programme with particular focus on establishing changes that have occurred as measured by key result indicators as stipulated in the logframe

Objective 3: Identify and assess key lessons learned, challenges and draw recommendation for future programming interventions

Objective 4: Assess sustainability of the project interventions beyond donor funding.

Objective 5: Employ a quasi-experimental design to compare households and communities directly targeted by SomReP interventions with non-targeted or indirectly exposed groups, thereby strengthening attribution of observed changes to program interventions.

More Details to be provided in full ToR upon Expression of Interest.

We hereby invite Expression of Interest from registered, approved and reputable consultants to provide above-named services to World Vision Somalia.