Job Description

Term of Reference for Baseline Assessment

Anticipatory Action & Climate Resilience along Transhumance Corridors in Somalia’

(AART) project

1-   Background

CARE has worked in Somalia since 1981 to reduce poverty and vulnerabilities to natural disasters, climate change and shocks, promote learning and address gender inequality. CARE Somalia has recognized expertise in implementing successful resilience programmes, working with the most vulnerable and ultra- marginalized populations in Somalia. CARE currently implements, resilience building programs in all regions of Somalia where it is presently one of the key development partners in climate change and resilience programming. In 2023, CARE projects reached more than two million people, more than half of which were women and girls. We achieve this through three programs, designed along the development-humanitarian Nexus and contributing to improving governance and the social, economic and environmental resilience of vulnerable and excluded populations in Somalia. Core pillars of CARE’s programming include Gender Equality & Education; Climate Justice, Food, Water, and Nutrition; and Humanitarian Assistance. Our resilience initiatives are design to enhance food and nutrition security of vulnerable population through increasing climate-smart agricultural and livestock production, promoting the organisation of smallholder farmers and pastoralists into savings groups and cooperatives and promoting their access and linkage with finance, value chains and business development services. It also increases the availability of water for household consumption and agricultural use, helps to improve children’s and pregnant and lactating mothers’ nutritional status, and supports community contingency planning and the strengthening of early warning systems. Under the Climate Justice, Food, Water and Nutrition CARE is implementing a range of programs. Among these, is the Anticipatory Action & Climate Resilience along Transhumance Corridors in Somalia’(AART) project being implementing in Southwest state Somalia by a Consortium consisting of CARE international, World vision, WARDI and Shaqadoon . To inform and refine the design of this vital project, CARE Somalia is inviting consultant(s) to conduct a baseline assessment. This assessment aims to establish the current conditions in the targeted communities and assess the feasibility of the proposed approaches.

2-   Project Summary

Somalia faces a multifaceted humanitarian crisis due to climate events, inter-clan disputes, and governance issues. This has severely impacted the pastoral and agropastoral communities, jeopardizing their food security and livelihoods. Over 65% of Somalia's workforce relies on pastoralism, underpinning 80% of the country's annual exports. While pastoralists have traditionally navigated extreme climates through long-distance livestock migrations, this crucial resilience is now under threat, as climate change, over-grazing, unsustainable habits, and conflict disrupt seasonal routines of livestock corridors.

Employing a 'corridor approach', the AART project aims to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable groups within Southwest Somalia's transhumance corridors through a two-fold strategy. Firstly, it focuses on rehabilitating and restoring crucial infrastructure along the corridors, including water stations, pasture zones, and fodder banks, thereby reviving the disrupted seasonal movements within the livestock corridors, supplemented by direct support to the farming communities within the corridors. Secondly, the project aims to establish an effective early warning system specifically designed to cater to pastoralists' needs, enabling them to make informed decisions about their movement.

Result Area 1: Pastoral and agropastoral communities and IDPs, along transhumance corridors in the conflict-prone region of Lower Shabelle, Bay and Bakool regions, have improved their capacity to anticipate and manage risks, through enhanced access to timely and relevant early warning information and anticipatory action plans tailored to their needs.

-       Output 1.1: The community risks and vulnerability context, as well as the main gaps and needs in terms of early warning and disaster risk management (DRM) capacity, along the transhumance corridors, are identified.

-       Output 1.2: Community DRM mechanisms and EWS are strengthened/developed, through improved/new/Sahan EWS solutions tailored to the needs of mobile pastoralist and agro-pastoralist groups and IDPs, along the transhumance corridors (based on gap analysis).

-       Output 1.3: Context- and livelihood specific anticipatory action plans, are developed at the community level (linked to EWS) and selected early action activities are implemented.

Result Area 2: The climate resilience and social cohesion of vulnerable pastoralist and agro-pastoralist communities and IDPs, along the pastoral transhumance corridors, is strengthened, with a focus on women, youth and people with disabilities.

• Output 2.1: The livelihoods of agro-pastoralist, pastoralist communities, and IDPs along the transhumance corridors (with a focus on women, youth, and people with disabilities), are strengthened through climate smart and adapted solutions, focusing on livestock-based livelihoods, such as water & feed infrastructure, climate-smart fodder production practice, veterinary services, and livestock-markets).   
• Output 2.2: Social cohesion and coordination among climate-vulnerable communities involved in livestock and crop production systems along the transhumance corridors is enhanced.
• Output 2.3: Rangeland regeneration/land scape restoration promoted, through private sector partners (Training producer on GAP, Provide drought resilient seed input, link producers to off-takers though contract farming) and existing NRM committee

Result Area 3: Institutional capacity for early warning and anticipatory action  

• Output 3.1: Key relevant national and regional (Southwest State) institutions, stakeholders and platforms involved in DRM and EWS, are identified and engaged.
• Output 3.2: Approaches for policy integration, replication and scaling of EWS developed in the Southwest State, are developed with relevant platforms and authorities involved in DRM and anticipatory action.   
• Output 3.3: An inclusive policy dialogue to support, fund and implement anticipatory action initiatives for the most vulnerable and hard to reach populations groups (pastoralist, agro-pastoralist IDPs) is established and supported.

3-   The Baseline study of the AART Project

The main aim of the baseline study is to establish benchmarks against which performance and impact of the project will be measured for accountability and learning purposes.

3.1. Purpose And Objectives of the Baseline Study

Targeting six districts in South-west state,  the baseline’s specific objectives aim to:

-       Provide an updated situational analysis of the project target pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and IDPs communities by validating assumptions made in project design; identifying and maximizing potential strengths and opportunities; and mitigating weaknesses and threats to project implementation

-       Assess the current community practices in relation to resilience building, pastoral, natural resources management, income generating activities, livelihood strategies, food consumption practices, and hazard risks coping strategies.

-       Review the available data on vegetation coverage, land use, fodder availability and how they influence livestock mobility.

-       Assess target government institutional stakeholder capacities (Livestock and DRM) in implementing DRM strategies. Capacities on Rangeland Management, livestock development, and gaps of the policy and legal framework. 

Furthermore, the baseline is expected to capture, and further research on the current context, information and resources related Denmark's Somalia Country Framework which recognizes preventing the displacement crisis and the need for resilience and livelihood support while also linking climate and security (“environmental peacebuilding") with an emphasis on environmental peacebuilding, including early warning and early action. 

4-   Baseline Study Design and Methodology

The consultant should use mixed methods of qualitative and quantitative for the study, triangulating information from different sources and methods (e.g. quantitative and qualitative) to enhance the reliability and comprehensiveness of findings. In addition, the baseline will have to use gender sensitive methods, ensuring that women, girls, men and boys from different groups of stakeholders participate, and that their different voices are heard and incorporated into the baseline process. The consultant is expected to further refine the methodology upon the contract's commencement.

Key Methods and Tools:

• Surveys and Questionnaires: To gather quantitative data on community demographics, vulnerabilities, and access to resources.
• Key Informant Interviews (KIIs): With local leaders, government officials, NGOs, and other stakeholders to gain insights into existing DRM and EWS practices.
• Focus Group Discussions (FGDs): With community members, including marginalized groups, to understand their perceptions, needs, and challenges.
• Stakeholder Mapping and Analysis: To identify and analyze the roles and relationships of key stakeholders involved in DRM and climate resilience.
• Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) Tools: Such as community mapping and seasonal calendars to understand local climate impacts and resource use.

5-   Baseline Study Deliverables and Reporting Outline

1. a) Deliverables

In reference to the scope of work above, the consultant team is expected to accomplish and submit the following:

1. An inception report including:

• Research methodology including the sampling methodology and the analysis framework,
• Draft data collection tools,
• Detailed work plan outlining all tasks to be completed by each of the members of the consultant team for the duration of the end-line.

2. Data collection protocols
3. Technical support for training guidelines for enumerators incl. training tool kits, and training session plans
4. In depth quantitative and qualitative analysis of data.
5. Complete clean datasets in SPSS, inclusive of complete codebooks, and where applicable, consolidated datasets
6. Complete qualitative datasets in Excel or open-source software; if open-source software is used, protocols must be taken to ensure confidentiality and limited access to data files.
7. SPSS syntax and output files reflecting the analysis conducted;
8. Report (in MS Word), following the format provided
9. Presentations of preliminary findings and recommendations validation and feedback with CARE and other stakeholders.
10. Final report with corresponding finalized annexes in English.
11. Summary reports for each region (2-3 pages long), in a reader-friendly format, for dissemination with stakeholders.

Please remember the inception report will be approved by the program manager, and the program quality team, and it is only then that the assignment will be carried out.

6-   Outline of Baseline study report

1. Cover page, Table of contents, List of acronyms
2. Executive summary – should be a clear and concise stand-alone document that states the most salient findings, conclusions and recommendations of the study and gives readers the essential contents of the baseline report in the three to five pages.
3. Methodology and study design – should describe the methodology and design of the quantitative and qualitative components, constraints and limitations to the study, and issues in carrying out the study.
4. Tabular summary of quantitative study results – should present findings of the quantitative survey in table form for all indicators and for the aggregate program area
5. Findings – should present results from the quantitative survey and qualitative study. Results from the quantitative survey should be analysed and discussed, using findings from the qualitative study for triangulation, interpretation and validation of results. Any bivariate and multivariate analysis undertaken should also be included.
6. Conclusions and recommendations – should provide high-level conclusions from the baseline study and recommendations for the design and implementation of the future final evaluations. Recommendations must be relevant to the project and context and include concrete and realistic steps for implementing.
7. Annexes – all special documentation identified as necessary or useful (e.g. quantitative survey/qualitative study instruments, sampling plan for the quantitative survey, syntax files etc.).

7-   Baseline Schedule/Timeline

The Consultant must submit a timeline of activities as part of its proposals

The expected timeframe of the baseline assessment is 25 working days. This timeframe will be possible if data collection is conducted simultaneously in all three project areas. CARE Project Manager will collate feedback from stakeholders (CARE Denmark , donor and government), and share with the consultant within two weeks of receiving the draft. The final report must be submitted 10 days (about 1 and a half weeks) after receiving the feedback. The detailed work plan for the baseline assessment study will be finalized during the assignment inception phase.

Experiences and Qualifications

1-   Professional Experience/ requirements

• A consultant with strong knowledge and experience covering the key result areas of the project is recommended for this evaluation.
• Experience in humanitarian and development contexts.
• The consultant should have a minimum of 8 years of working experience in the dry lands of the Horn of Africa. Additionally, they should provide CARE with the three most recent reports related to this study. (Similar report is highly recommended, and prioritized)
•  The Consultant should also have demonstrated experience in evaluating humanitarian and development project focusing on strengthening drought resilience capacity, disaster preparedness and emergency response
• The Consultant should have at least a degree in disaster risk management, or veterinary, or pastoralist studies.  But having Msc in similar course is preferable.
• the team should include skills and expertise required to design, plan, and conduct mixed-methods impact evaluation,
• Skills in quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis, drawing findings from multiple sources and handling potential contradictions between data sets; using justified approaches for analysis of qualitative data. 

2-   Budget

The budget prepared by the bidder should cover all the activities outlined above, including baseline training, data collection, data cleaning, transcription and translation. This budget is inclusive of all costs covering team member costs, travel, research costs and any other costs associated the completion of the work including where required costs for reasonable adjustment. Bidders are required to organise and fund their own duty of care arrangements as required.

Bidders are required to provide a fully costed proposal in the form of a price schedule that as a minimum should include:

• Sub-total of fees for the delivery of any task or deliverable.
• Sub-total for number of days per partner organisation (as applicable);
• Expenses and overheads broken down by the project cost categories;

• Reasonable adjustment costs; and
• Total costs before and after any taxes that are applicable.

3-   Expression of Interest

Any person/firm interested in carrying out this evaluation should send an expression of interest comprising:

• Technical proposal including the methodology and work plan to comply with the requirements of the evaluation
• Financial proposal: consultants expense including transportations and enumerators cost

CVs of the persons to carry out the evaluation

Skills Required

Attachment

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